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Source : IEA

Fuel Report – April 2023

About this report

The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world’s most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries.

Highlights

• World oil demand will climb by 2 mb/d in 2023 to a record 101.9 mb/d. Reflecting the widening disparity between regions, non-OECD countries, buoyed by a resurgent China, will account for 90% of growth. OECD demand, dragged down by weak industrial activity and warm weather, contracted by 390 kb/d y-o-y in 1Q23, its second consecutive quarter of decline. Jet/kerosene accounts for 57% of 2023 gains.
• Extra cuts by OPEC+ will push world oil supply down 400 kb/d by end-2023. From March-December, gains of 1 mb/d from non-OPEC+ fail to offset a 1.4 mb/d decline from the producer bloc. For the year as a whole, global oil production growth slows to 1.2 mb/d versus 4.6 mb/d in 2022. Non-OPEC+, led by the US and Brazil, drives the 2023 expansion, rising 1.9 mb/d. OPEC+ is expected to drop by 760 kb/d.
• Global refining throughput is forecast to average 82 mb/d this year, 0.1 mb/d lower than in last month’s Report due to weaker 1Q23 data. Annual gains will double to 2.1 mb/d from 1Q23 to 2Q23, as runs in the US normalise and with Chinese activity materially higher than a weak 2Q22 baseline. On average, 2023 crude runs will approach pre-covid levels but remain 0.3 mb/d below 2019 average throughputs.
• Russian oil exports in March soared to the highest since April 2020 thanks to surging product flows that returned to levels last seen before Russia invaded Ukraine. Total oil shipments rose by 0.6 mb/d to 8.1 mb/d, with products climbing 450 kb/d m-o-m to 3.1 mb/d. Estimated oil export revenues rebounded by $1 billion to $12.7 billion but were 43% lower than a year ago.
• Global inventories held largely steady in February after surging by 58 mb in the previous month. Oil on water and non-OECD stocks fell by 11.5 mb and 2.1 mb, respectively, while total OECD inventories rose by 8.8 mb. OECD commercial stocks built by 9.6 mb, narrowing the deficit against the five-year average to 7.5 mb. Preliminary data for the US, Europe and Japan show a hefty 38.9 mb decline in March.
• ICE Brent oil futures slumped to a 15-month low of $71/bbl in mid-March due to financial market instability but then recovered as banking stress waned and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year increased. Surprise OPEC+ production cuts announced in early April added further momentum to the rebound. At the time of writing, Brent futures traded at $87/bbl.

Mind the gap

Surprise OPEC+ supply cuts announced on 2 April risk aggravating an expected oil supply deficit in 2H23 and boosting oil prices at a time of heightened economic uncertainty, even as industrial activity slows in the world’s largest economies and production growth outside the alliance appears robust. The bloc’s self-described “precautionary move” immediately triggered a $7/bbl jump in North Sea Dated crude to $85/bbl, up nearly $15/bbl from March lows.

The apparent weakness in industrial activity is impacting gasoil demand, whereas the services sector and personal consumption are driving gasoline and jet uptake. While gasoil cracks have eased, those for gasoline continue to trend higher. Consumers confronted by inflated prices for basic necessities will now have to spread their budgets even more thinly. This augurs badly for the economic recovery and growth.

The latest OPEC+ voluntary curbs of 1.16 mb/d come on top of an announced 500 kb/d cut in Russian output from March that has now been extended through the rest of the year, and a 2 mb/d reduction in targets taking effect last November. While apparently a move to support declining prices amid financial turmoil in mid-March, rising global oil stocks may have also contributed to the decision. In January, OECD industry stocks surged by 53 mb to 2 830 mb, the highest since July 2021 and only 47 mb below the five-year average. Preliminary data for February show further builds, albeit at a much slower pace. By March, however, the trend was already turning, with OECD industry stocks plunging by 39 mb – their biggest monthly decline in over a year.

While oil demand in developed nations has underwhelmed in recent months, slowed by warmer weather and sluggish industrial activity, robust gains in China and other non-OECD countries are providing a strong offset. In 1Q23, OECD oil demand fell 390 kb/d y-o-y, but a solid Chinese rebound lifted global oil demand 810 kb/d above year-earlier levels to 100.4 mb/d. A much stronger increase of 2.7 mb/d is expected through year-end, propelled by a continued recovery in China and international travel. For 2023 as a whole, world oil demand is forecast to rise by an average 2 mb/d, to 101.9 mb/d, with the non-OECD accounting for 87% of the growth and China alone making up more than half the global increase.

Meeting those gains may prove challenging as the new OPEC+ cuts could reduce output by 1.4 mb/d from March through year-end, more than offsetting a 1 mb/d increase in non-OPEC+ production. Growth from the US shale patch, traditionally the most price-responsive source of more output, is currently limited by supply chain bottlenecks and higher costs.

Our oil market balances were already set to tighten in the second half of 2023, with the potential for a substantial supply deficit to emerge. The latest cuts risk exacerbating those strains, pushing both crude and product prices higher. Consumers currently under siege from inflation will suffer even more from higher prices, especially in emerging and developing economies. 

Source : IEA

Fuel Report – March 2023

About this report

The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world’s most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries.

Highlights

• Following an 80 kb/d contraction in 4Q22, world oil demand growth is set to accelerate sharply over the course of 2023, from 710 kb/d in 1Q23 to 2.6 mb/d in 4Q23. Average annual growth is forecast to ease from 2.3 mb/d in 2022 to 2 mb/d, and global oil demand to reach a record 102 mb/d. Rebounding air traffic and the release of pent-up Chinese demand dominate the recovery.

• World oil supply leapt 830 kb/d in February to 101.5 mb/d as the US and Canada rebounded strongly from winter storms and other outages. We expect non-OPEC+ to drive global output growth of 1.6 mb/d this year, enough to meet demand in 1H23 but falling short in the second half when seasonal trends and China’s recovery are set to boost demand to record levels.

• Global refinery throughputs reached a seasonal low in February at 81.1 mb/d, as the muted recovery in the US merged with the start of planned seasonal maintenance elsewhere. Despite the collapse in middle distillate cracks, refining margins remain healthy, especially for those running discounted Russian crude and feedstocks. We expect 2023 runs to average 82.1 mbd, up 1.8 mbd y-o-y.

• Russian oil exports fell by 500 kb/d to 7.5 mb/d in February as the EU embargo on refined oil products came into force. Shipments to the EU fell by 800 kb/d to 600 kb/d, compared with more than 4 mb/d at the start of 2022. Sailings to China and India also fell, while cargoes without a destination surged by 600 kb/d to 800 kb/d. Export revenues plunged another $2.7 bn to $11.6 bn, down 42% on a year-ago.

• Global observed inventories surged by 52.9 mb in January, following builds in both the OECD (+57.1 mb) and non-OECD (+13 mb) and a decline in oil on water (-17.2 mb). OECD industry oil stocks rose by 54.8 mb, four times the five-year average build. At 2 851 mb, stocks reached an 18-month high. Preliminary data for the US, Europe and Japan show a 7.8 mb increase in industry stocks in February.

• In range-bound trading, crude oil futures fell by about $1/bbl m-o-m in February as optimism surrounding China’s reopening faded in the face of the hawkish drift in central bank policy. WTI continued to slump in physical differentials amid ongoing US crude stock builds. Prices fell a further $3/bbl in March as macroeconomic worries escalated following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

Uncharted Waters

The market is caught in the cross-currents of supply outstripping still-lacklustre demand, with stocks building to levels not seen in 18 months. Much of the supply overhang reflects ample Russian barrels racing to re-route to new destinations under the full force of EU embargoes. Despite the increasing dislocation in global trade, the rising stock cover has held the Brent crude oil futures in a relatively narrow $80-85/bbl range since the start of the year.

A 52.9 mb January surge in global inventories lifted known stocks to nearly 7.8 billion barrels, their highest level since September 2021 and preliminary indicators for February suggest further builds. Despite solid Asian demand growth, the market has been in surplus for three straight quarters.

While Russian oil production remained near pre-war levels in February, Russia’s exports to world markets fell by more than 500 kb/d to 7.5 mb/d. Shipments to the EU plunged by 760 kb/d to just 580 kb/d. Over the past year, 4.5 mb/d of Russian oil previously going to the EU, North America and OECD Asia Oceania has had to find alternative outlets. Willing buyers in Asia, namely India and, to a lesser extent, China, have snapped up discounted crude oil cargoes, but increasing volumes on the water suggest the share of Russian oil in their import mix may be getting too big for comfort. Russia accounted for around 40% and 20% of Indian and Chinese crude imports, respectively, in February. The two countries took in more than 70% of Russia’s crude exports last month.

While Russian crude oil shipments are almost exclusively heading to Asia, a more diverse set of buyers for products backed out of the EU is emerging. In February, Russian product exports to the EU and its G7 allies slumped by nearly 2 mb/d versus pre-war levels. At the same time, exports to Asia grew by less than 300 kb/d. Shipments to Africa, Türkiye and the Middle East rose by 300 kb/d, 240 kb/d and 175 kb/d, respectively, while Latin America received roughly the same as before the war. The lack of buyers saw oil pile up on the water and product exports drop by 650 kb/d y-o-y.

t remains to be seen if there will be sufficient appetite for Russian oil products now that the price cap is in place or if its production will start to fall under the weight of sanctions. Revenues are already dwindling. In February, Russia’s estimated oil export revenues fell to $11.6 bn – a $2.7 bn decline from January when volumes were significantly higher, and nearly half pre-war levels. Russian fiscal receipts from oil sales were up 22% from January after export taxation rules were adjusted, but at $6.9 bn, just 45% of the level from a year earlier, according to the Russian finance ministry.

At least for this month, Moscow has signalled it will cut output by 500 kb/d. Even so, world oil supply should comfortably exceed demand in the first half of the year. Building stocks today will ease tensions as the market swings into deficit during the second half of the year when China is expected to drive world oil demand to record levels. Global demand is set to surge by 3.2 mb/d from 1Q23 to 4Q23, taking average growth for the year to 2 mb/d. Matching that increase would be a challenge even if Russia were able to maintain production at pre-war levels.

Source: IEA

Fuel Report – February 2023

About this report

The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world’s most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries.

Highlights

• Following a modest year-on-year contraction in 4Q22, global oil demand is set to rise by 2 mb/d in 2023 to 101.9 mb/d. The Asia-Pacific region (+1.6 mb/d), fuelled by a resurgent China (+900 kb/d), dominates the growth outlook. The reopening of borders will boost air traffic. Jet/kerosene demand is expected to increase by 1.1 mb/d to 7.2 mb/d, 90% of 2019 levels.
• World oil supply held largely steady in January, at around 100.8 mb/d. The pause comes after a sharp 1.2 mb/d decline at the end of 2022 led by the US and Saudi Arabia. We expect global output to grow 1.2 mb/d in 2023, driven by non-OPEC+. Supply from OPEC+ is projected to contract with Russia pressured by sanctions.
• Global refinery throughputs fell 730 kb/d in January, with US activity still recovering from the outages during the Arctic freeze. A further decline is expected in February on scheduled maintenance. Despite mild weather in Europe and a seasonal slowdown in road demand, product cracks rallied on supply concerns in the US and ahead of the EU embargo on Russian products coming into force.
• Russian oil exports rose to 8.2 mb/d in January ahead of the EU embargo and G7 price cap on refined products taking effect. Crude oil exports increased by nearly 300 kb/d m-o-m, despite a further 450 kb/d decline in shipments to the EU. Product loadings held steady at around 3.1 mb/d. Export revenues are estimated at $13 bn, marginally higher than in December but down 36% on a year ago.
• Global observed oil inventories tumbled by 69.8 mb m-o-m in December, but were 40.5 mb higher than a year ago and 126 mb above the low reached in March 2022. OECD industry stocks fell by 18.1 mb in December to 2 767 mb, 95.7 mb below the five-year average. Preliminary data for the US, Europe and Japan show a build of 28 mb in January, led by US crude and gasoline stocks.
• North Sea Dated rose by $2.50/bbl m-o-m to $82.86/bbl in January, its first monthly increase since October, as economic sentiment marginally improved following China’s reopening. Forward curves and physical differentials were largely stable, except for in the US where refinery outages propelled gasoline margins higher, while at the same time weighing on WTI prices. Freight rates fell across the board.

One year on

Nearly a year on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global oil markets are trading in relative calm. Oil prices are back to pre-war levels with the exception of diesel, though even these have drifted much lower from last summer’s historical highs. World oil supply looks set to exceed demand through the first half of 2023, but the balance could quickly shift to deficit as demand recovers and some Russian output is shut in.

Russian oil production and exports have held up relatively well despite sanctions. The country has managed to reroute shipments of crude to Asia and the G7 price cap on crude appears to be helping to keep the barrels flowing. In January, output was down only 160 kb/d from pre-war levels, with a lofty 8.2 mb/d of oil shipped to markets. But in a sign that Moscow may be struggling to place all of its barrels, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in early February that Russia would curb output by 500 kb/d in March rather than sell to countries that comply with the G7 price caps. 

The cut may be an attempt to shore up oil prices. In January, Moscow was forced to sell exports at a large discount. Their 2023 budget is based on a Urals price of $70.10/bbl, but the grade’s export price averaged just $49.48/bbl in January versus $82/bbl for North Sea Dated. As a result, Russia’s fiscal revenues from oil operations plunged 48% y-o-y in January to 310 billion roubles (or $4.2 bn), while export revenues dropped 36% to $13 billion. 

With Russian oil production in decline and limited gains expected from the rest of the OPEC+ bloc, non-OPEC+ producers will lead world supply growth in 2023. For the year as a whole, global oil supply is forecast to expand by 1.2 mb/d, led by the United States, Brazil, Norway, Canada and Guyana – all set to pump at record rates. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia, along with the UAE, will also produce near all-time highs, leaving a thin spare capacity cushion of roughly 3.4 mb/d.

At the same time, world oil demand growth is picking up after a marked slowdown in the second half of 2022 and a year-on-year contraction in the fourth quarter. China accounts for nearly half the 2 mb/d projected increase this year, with neighbouring countries also set to benefit after Beijing ditched its zero-Covid policies. A pronounced uptick in air traffic in recent weeks emphasises the central role of jet fuel deliveries in 2023 growth – expected to soar by 1.1 mb/d to reach 7.2 mb/d, around 90% of 2019 levels. Total demand will hit a record 101.9 mb/d, 1.4 mb/d more than the 2019 average. 

The impact on Russia’s product exports following the EU embargo and price cap that came into effect on 5 February will be a key factor when it comes to meeting that demand growth. So will Beijing’s stance on domestic refinery activity and product exports amid its reopening. New refineries in Africa and the Middle East as well as China are expected to step in to cater for the growth in refined product demand. If the price cap on products is half as successful as the crude cap, product markets may well weather the storm – but more crude supplies would be required to prevent renewed stock draws later in the year. 

In recent years, the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Risk Management Program (RMP) inspections have identified several facilities where a robust system for continuous improvement still needs to be implemented. In some cases, regulated entities have had to make significant changes to their risk management practices and programs due to these inspections.

The RMP is a requirement of the EPA as part of the Clean Air Act Amendments. It requires facilities that use highly hazardous chemicals to develop a Risk Management Plan that: identifies potential accidents, the steps the facility takes to prevent accidents, and the necessary actions should an accident occur.

The EPA conducts RMP inspections to ensure that regulated entities comply with the program requirements and identify areas where improvements can be made. These inspections can be performed at any time and usually involve a review of the entity’s risk management plan and site visits to observe the entity’s risk management and prevention program practices.

The EPA has published several resources to help regulated entities understand the RMP inspection process and what to expect of them. These resources include an RMP Inspection Manual, which guides preparing for and conducting an RMP inspection, and an RMP Inspection Checklist, which can be used to self-assess compliance with the program requirements.

The EPA aims to ensure that regulated entities have a robust system to improve their risk management practices continuously. By conducting RMP inspections, the EPA can identify areas where improvements are needed and guide how to make those improvements.

ETA, Inc. was part of a team to do a pre-inspection review of a client site to identify any ‘holes in the cheese’ that may exist in implementing Risk Management Program objectives/requirements. We applaud our client’s proactive action in identifying and resolving potential concerns before an inspection. Not that this is a new concept since most regulated entities typically have a robust “check and adjust” process for continuous improvement. However, this is an overlooked step in today’s ever-tightening budgets.

The EPA inspection identified only a few minor areas that needed more focus. Before the inspection, all these areas were identified by the ETA pre-review team.

Engineering & Technical Associates, Inc. (ETA) is an engineering consulting and recruiting company that provides consulting and personnel recruiting (both contract and permanent) services to the refining, chemical, and petrochemical industries.

Source: IEA

Fuel report — May 2022

About this report

The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world’s most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries.

Highlights

• World oil demand growth is forecast to slow to 1.9 mb/d in 2Q22 from 4.4 mb/d in 1Q22 and is now projected to ease to 490 kb/d on average in the second half of the year on a more tempered economic expansion and higher prices. As summer driving escalates and jet fuel continues to recover, world oil demand is set to rise by 3.6 mb/d from April to August. For 2022, demand is expected to increase by 1.8 mb/d on average to 99.4 mb/d.
• Russia shut in nearly 1 mb/d in April, driving down world oil supply by 710 kb/d to 98.1 mb/d. Over time, steadily rising volumes from Middle East OPEC+ and the US along with a slowdown in demand growth is expected to fend off an acute supply deficit amid a worsening Russian supply disruption. Excluding Russia, output from the rest of the world is set to rise by 3.1 mb/d from May through December.
• Global refinery margins have surged to extraordinarily high levels due to depleted product inventories and constrained refinery activity. Throughputs in April fell 1.4 mb/d to 78 mb/d, the lowest since May 2021, largely driven by China. Between now and August, runs are forecast to ramp up by 4.7 mb/d, but the tightness in product markets is expected to continue based on our current oil demand outlook.
• Global observed oil inventories declined by a further 45 mb during March and are now a total 1.2 billion barrels lower since June 2020. In the OECD, the release of 24.7 mb of government stocks during March halted the precipitous decline in industry inventories. OECD industry stocks rose by 3 mb to 2 626 mb, but remained 299 mb below the five-year average. Preliminary data for April show OECD industry inventories increased by 5.3 mb.
• Crude prices fell in April to trade in a narrow $10/bbl range above $100/bbl. ICE Brent last traded around $105/bbl and WTI $102/bbl. Rapid early-May advances on the sixth round of EU sanctions for Russia drove renewed price tensions. High crude prices and exceptional product cracks are supporting strong inflation trends. 

Pressure mounting

Russia’s isolation following its invasion of Ukraine is deepening as the EU and G7 contemplate tougher sanctions that include a full phase out of oil imports from the country. If agreed, the new embargoes would accelerate the reorientation of trade flows that is already underway and will force Russian oil companies to shut in more wells. Even so, steadily rising output elsewhere, coupled with slower demand growth, especially in China, is expected to fend off an acute supply deficit in the near term. Amid the widening supply and demand uncertainties, oil market volatility remains rife, but prices are trading in a lower and narrower $10/bbl range above $100/bbl. Brent last traded at $ 105/bbl and WTI $102/bbl.

Despite mounting international pressure and falling oil production, Russian exports have so far held up by and large. But now major trading houses are winding down deals ahead of a 15 May deadline to halt all transactions with state-controlled Rosneft, Gazprom Neft and Transneft. Following a supply decline of nearly 1 mb/d in April, losses could expand to around 3 mb/d during the second half of the year.

Global refinery maintenance and capacity constraints are exacerbating dislocations caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine. During April, crude and product markets saw diverging trends. While crude prices trended lower overall, diesel and gasoline cracks surged to record levels, pulling up refinery margins and end-user prices.

Limited spare capacity in the global refining system, together with reduced exports of Russian fuel oil, diesel and naphtha have aggravated the tightness in product markets, which have now seen seven consecutive quarters of stock draws. While a first tranche of SPR releases halted the precipitous decline in OECD industry stocks in March, crude made up the majority of it and product stocks have continued to fall. Notably, middle distillate reserves reached their lowest levels since April 2008.

Soaring pump prices and slowing economic growth are expected to significantly curb the demand recovery through the remainder of the year and into 2023. Moreover, extended lockdowns across China where the government struggles to contain the spread of Covid-19 are driving a significant slowdown in the world’s second largest oil consumer. For the year as a whole, global oil demand is forecast to average 99.4 mb/d in 2022, up 1.8 mb/d y-o-y.

As restrictions in China ease, summer driving picks up and jet fuel continues to recover, world oil demand is set to rise by 3.6 mb/d from an April low through August. If refiners cannot keep pace, product markets and consumers could come under additional strain. The IEA’s recent 10-Point Plan to Cut Oil Use outlines measures that can be taken immediately to cut consumption and ease the pain caused by high oil prices.

Source: AIChE

Process Safety Management System starts with managing the process related risks and from the first step of establishing a new process unit that is needed to evaluate the risks and define the necessary measurements. Process Hazard Analysis methodologies are the systematic tools which help to evaluate the risks in a process. For different needs there are several methodologies like DOW FETI, HAZOP, What if, HAZID, Fault Tree and Event Tree Analysis, Scenario Modelling, Facility Siting etc. Some of these methodologies are semi quantitative some are quantitative methodologies. In order to define and prevent major industrial accidents in our refinery we use DOW FETI, HAZOP, FTA and ETA and Scenario modelling. Moreover for some kind of projects we may also apply What if and HAZID analysis instead of HAZOP depending on the complexity. Facility Siting is another tool for risk related studies which is used to evaluate the risks for buildings in order to protect people inside the buildings.

The workflow for a full unit PHA study starts with DOW FETI calculation which is used for risk ranking of al static equipment inside the unit. DOW FETI calculation is done in accordance with the equipment temperature, pressure, hold-up amounts, components and also reaction types if there is any. Then risk assessment process continues with HAZOP studies which is for scenario identification. In HAZOP, first step is chopping the unit into small parts to be evaluated which is called nodes. After that all nodes are evaluated using P&IDs and PFDs by keywords like temperature, pressure, flow, level etc. HAZOP helps to understand what kind of scenarios are possible inside the unit and these critical scenarios are taken through FTA and ETA studies. HAZOP is a semi quantitative risk assessment method where FTA and ETA are quantitative methods. FTA is applied for critical scenarios in order to find out the probability of top event then ETA is then applied in order to find out the probability of scenarios like fire, explosion, toxic dispersion etc. caused by this top event. FTA and ETA analysis all use the statistical PFD and failure rate values of all initiating events and barriers defined in HAZOP for the related scenario.

Scenario Modelling is the following step which is used for understanding the effect of the probable scenario. The most probable scenarios coming from ETA is modelled to see the effect zones. These effect zones are used to plan Emergency Response Studies for all these potential major accidents.

Facility Siting is another check point in a unit PHA study all potential scenario modelling results are used to evaluate the risks for the buildings and also if there are any in the effect zones of fire, explosion or toxic release then there should be actions defined.